One of the most interesting things about SpaceX, they just keep adding to their stack of internal capabilities. And with those capabilities, more and more things become doable for them that most can't do.
There’s a challenge in that different heat pumps have wildly different performance characteristics, and they’re not widely understood by people. Some can’t heat effectively below 47 degrees F, others happily keep pumping out lots at -13 degrees F.
Even worse is that it seems most HVACs are totally incompetant when it comes to heat pumps too. Bunch of guys who closed the book after getting out of school and never bothered to learn anything new again.
I would be willing to bet OP got bent over by an idiot HVAC and now will never go back thanks to it. Meanwhile with a competent tech they would instead be here glowing about their experience.
Yeah, a lot of HVAC guys don’t install anything but the big chonky outdated single/dual stage domestic brands. I read this comment as he got one built in with the house, and unfortunately, since they tend not to be understood by buyers and therefore command any premium in the sale process, there’s not much of an incentive to install anything but the crappiest pump on the market. This happened to us, the last homeowners wanted to replace their old furnace right before selling, so they installed the lowest efficiency heat pump that’s legal to sell. It’s trash in cold weather. I DIY installed a cold weather rated mini split myself later, it’s incredible in cold weather, and sips power.
I went down a big rabbit hole when I installed it a couple years ago and made a little calculator to compare heat pumps based on the weather in your area and the pump temperature-efficiency curves: https://heatpushers.com
It needs some revisiting, though, I’m guessing half the links are broken by now.
> How are you planning on powering all your electric appliances? And before you say solar, you are aware that the sun only shines during daytime, while peak energy usage happens in the morning and late afternoon.
You’re aware that levelized power source price comparisons quote “solar+storage”, not just solar, right? And that that price is now cheaper per MWh than combined cycle Nat gas?
Battery prices and solar prices have come down so rapidly that anyone operating on knowledge from even a few years ago are going to have a very inaccurate understanding of the landscape.
Anyone have any thoughts on what happens when banks/brokerages start getting hit in earnest? Think it's prudent to split single brokerage portfolios across multiple? Or do they have enough speed bumps in their procedures that they're not quite so vulnerable to major losses?
If the large and politically connected banks and brokerages have losses large enough to threaten their survival as institutions then the government will jump in to help secure them and bail them out if needed.
I would stick with a "too big to fail" institution instead of splitting across multiple.
If you want a real "backup" you could ask for physical stock certificates or get physical gold or something else that cannot be taken from you by computer hacking.
I work in infosec and work with many of these large organizations.
Simply put I don't think dropping in smart people in dysfunctional organization is going to have instant results. It will take a pretty long period of time to make them aware of all the systems with holes.
In the meantime hackers would be running off with actual information and money. More than likely I see banks turning off all kinds of systems in a panic and people with their money there being in an even bigger panic.
FDIC insures deposits up to 250k. Big institutions basically all have this government backing. If an incident occurs, FDIC has deposits available next business day in event of a bank failure
FDIC insurance is mostly unrelated to this. If someone hacks a brokerage, sells a bunch of customer assets for cash, adds new bank accounts for those customers, and then withdraws that cash to those new bank accounts, FDIC insurance does not help at all.
His track record of prediction on this topic is stunningly bad, and he's made a job out of being counter to the AI hype, so he seems likely unable to honestly update his beliefs to adapt to changing evidence without jeopardizing the attention people pay to him.
Predicting global events is next to impossible. Don't look at the predictions, as his prediction game has slowed and he has recently admitted that he was wrong on his predictions. Look at his exposing of financial shenanigans which let the bubble grow.
The specifics are tough, but the rough shape isn't impossible. But it's hard, which is part of why most people try not to do it publicly with much confidence, lest they look like they're not worth listening to on the topic. Like, why are we listening to his opinions on this when he so clearly isn't an expert, and so many of his past opinions on it have been so far off?
And I think a big part of why you shouldn't listen to him is that he's said repeatedly that he doesn't really use generative AI outside of occasional experiments - he hasn't seen its potential enough to bother using it himself beyond some initial tests. Which is fine, but I think it also means that he likely doesn't have a good intuition of the likely future demand, which is pretty key in figuring out whether debt loads are likely to be sustainable or not. Investing is fundamentally about trying to predict the future and putting your money into the things that will likely be successful there. And he's demonstrably been terrible at predicting the future of this stuff.
Some GPUs may easily last more than 10 years of light use, but I am not aware of public data about the reliability of datacenter GPus, which would give the percentage of A100s that die during the first 3 years of 24/7 use and during the first 6 years of 24/7 use.
I doubt that many of the 6-year old A100s have been in use 24/7.
Yep, for someone with ~zero technical aptitude, I'd happily pay the premium for decreasing the number of things that can go wrong. Things getting unplugged accidentally account for a lot of tech support.
I think the only real solution to this is to switch to an OS with a backing org that has optimization for power users as a first-class goal. I've been liking Omarchy and NixOS for that. I say this as a Mac user since 1989.
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