I think the other function Uber serves is not just an aggregator of supply (of cars and drivers) but of demand (passengers). It is far from a trivial effort to have a sufficient amount of users know of your app/service, download and install it, trust it enough to add payment details and use it.
While not quite as insurmountable an obstacle as, say, making a new smartphone platform (sorry Palm/Nokia/BlackBerry/Microsoft), it is enough of one to make this far from a perfect, liquid market.
> I think the other function Uber serves is not just an aggregator of supply (of cars and drivers) but of demand (passengers).
I think you misunderstand Uber. Most of its perceived value is in arbitrage between drivers' perceived and actual costs of car ownership: drivers mostly think in terms of wages minus cost of gas, ignoring all of the other costs. Given that business model, I doubt Uber is actually looking at buying these cars. They will presumably force drivers to buy or lease the cars themselves.
So do individuals buy or lease self-driving cars in the future? Would they then set up their self-driving car to take instructions from Uber's central dispatch service in exchange for a cut of the profits?
Currently both Uber and Lyft handle the task of vetting drivers and making sure there is a good experience for their customers. They organize and control the labor required for a good experience for the riders.
Think about a rider in a world where Lyft and Uber are both dispatching self-driving cars. What's the difference between the services if they're all using Mercedes S-Class SelfDrivers? The rider knows that all Mercedes S-Class SelfDrivers are the same experience. There's no question of if the driver is trustworthy or competent. Uber and Lyft would be providing the exact same commodity experience of sending a self-driving car to your location to then do your bidding in exchange for money.
> So do individuals buy or lease self-driving cars in the future? Would they then set up their self-driving car to take instructions from Uber's central dispatch service in exchange for a cut of the profits?
In Uber's perfect world, yes. And Uber will do its best to hide the true costs of insurance, depreciation, regular maintenance, etc. from owners and lessors, just like they do today. It's worth understanding that Uber only works as long as it doesn't own any cars, or employ any drivers. If they switch over to owning some self-driving cars, they'll have to maintain and insure them.
Customer acquisition is, I mean, it's not like you literally just snap your fingers, but it's very straightforward. There are hundreds of channels to acquire customers, and services to help you do it.
In a hypothetical world in which we have fully autonomous vehicles and someone wants to compete with Uber, anyone who can afford capital investment in a fleet is not going to have much difficulty generating a customer base (and then they can have a mutually destructive price war with Uber).
While not quite as insurmountable an obstacle as, say, making a new smartphone platform (sorry Palm/Nokia/BlackBerry/Microsoft), it is enough of one to make this far from a perfect, liquid market.