> The real question is if cargo operations will continue to drive 747 demand.

The reality is that we're going to have loads of 747-400s that aren't life-expired available, and I imagine many operators will just turn to freighter conversions of them rather than order new 747-8s.

Till now, cargo operations are built on the backbone of older aircrafts that require relatively inexpensive modifications to haul pallets. The economics of the business rarely encourage brand new aircraft purchase with the exception of UPS and FedEx and ad-hoc specialized operators.

In the future, this might not be the case. In the era of fuel efficiency most passenger aircrafts were not designed to haul cargo. In-order to save on weight the main deck on the 777 was made of lightweight materials that is acceptable for passenger traffic. This in-turn makes it very expensive for cargo conversions.