I think these companies (autonomous car/truck) understand that they need to transition these processes slowly over time. I feel like it's better to start with something only moderately different and iterate than try to completely reinvent the entire structure of such a large industry.
First they do this, then they automate more and more portions, at each step reducing the amount of manual, human supervision. It also allows the industry to more consciously reduce numbers through attrition rather than mass layoffs. Better to stop young guys from becoming truck drivers and have the automation increase over 10-15 years until it just really isn't a career. The only people that will be affected are in the 25-35 age range now who have already taken the plunge, but at least they get some time to consider other options.
No doubt, but I think it's just the nature of complex systems. You could invent a drug that cures all diseases and maladies, and there would still be practicing doctors for 5-10 years while the cost/distribution/red-tape was worked out.
> I think these companies (autonomous car/truck) understand that they need to transition these processes slowly over time.
They understand pretty well that they need to transition faster than their competition. Given that, they'll do it as slow as their competitors allow, because it's investment and they don't like doing that quickly.
How fast that means is anybody's guess. But they can't just stop and wait.
First they do this, then they automate more and more portions, at each step reducing the amount of manual, human supervision. It also allows the industry to more consciously reduce numbers through attrition rather than mass layoffs. Better to stop young guys from becoming truck drivers and have the automation increase over 10-15 years until it just really isn't a career. The only people that will be affected are in the 25-35 age range now who have already taken the plunge, but at least they get some time to consider other options.