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You have better odds of winning $5M in the NY Lottery than you do of selling your company to Google (or Yahoo) (firstround.com)
7 points by jkopelman on April 27, 2007 | hide | past | favorite | 9 comments


the post just makes for a racy headline. nothing else. the sentiment is correct, but the analogies couldn't have been crappier. all lotto players are equal. all enterpreneurs aren't!


Additionally, millions of people play the lottery. Millions of people do not start tech startups. So your odds are not better of winning the NY lottery.


NY Lottery odds of winning, all 6 numbers: 1 in 45,057,474

5 + bonus: 1 in 7,509,579

How many start-ups are there? Your odds of becoming a millionaire have got to be better by orders of magnitude.

http://www.nylottery.org/ny/nyStore/cgi-bin/ProdSubEV_Cat_401_SubCat_201671_NavRoot_320.htm


Google and Yahoo aren't the only companies making acquisitions.


While using the lottery is a poor choice of analogy (as others have pointed out), I think his basic message is right: thinking that acquisition is the exit is foolhardy, particularly when you have neither revenues nor a plan to generate them.


Somebody should pick up a book on probability theory before posting in his blog...


Depends who you are.


Who says you can't just be in it to build up a sizeable community and make money from adsense? Blogga, please.





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