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Realistically, in the UK, it's going to be ETCS with balises: all new build stock at this point either has ETCS in-cab signalling fitted, or is designed for its fitment.

That said, the rollout of the infrastructure side of ETCS is somewhat delayed, but it is happening in places (Thameslink is ETCS Level 2 with conventional signal overlay, albeit with shorter blocks in ETCS; Crossrail is ETCS Level 2 with no overlay).



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