Could you make money by buying a div stock a bit of time before the dividends are distributed, but then sell BEFORE dividends, then short it until after dividends and people sell?
Good remark. I always tell people that a trade exists because a trade exists. In this case you're trying to game the "dumb" money. Question is how much alpha is there? If any, is it arbitraged out by people who have made the same observation as you? So something that worked in a backtest may cease to work when you implement it.
Stock splits are famously positive alpha events. The mere fact that a stock has now become more "affordable" because of a lower per share price causes people to buy it. But I don't think any professional investor in their right mind would trade such a strategy.
The pre ex date div strategy you suggest may be more relevant because there's a higher frequency of events. The effect may be more pronounced in more "retail" investor focused names. I wouldn't trade it in its own. But maybe group it together with a suite of other signals in a stat arb like strategy.
