There's a strong tendency in the tech world - and elsewhere but less so - to point to failures as an absolute proof something won't work, and to similarly use early successes as overly strong signals of viability.
An example of this would be the "obvious" superiority of micro-kernel OS designs compared to monoliths. Which is not at all how things actually panned out with Linux - but the problem was never about the architectural choice, it was about the fact that OS designs are hard - and you need to do the work to solve all the little problems which crop up with your big idea.
FSD is essentially going through the same thing, but the stakes are higher - FSD can kill people as a basic part of its function. We were always in a countdown till we started getting the first self-driving casualties.
This is not of course to suggest that what Tesla is doing right now is okay, but I'd sure be cautious trying to read the winner of the next 20 years into it.
An example of this would be the "obvious" superiority of micro-kernel OS designs compared to monoliths. Which is not at all how things actually panned out with Linux - but the problem was never about the architectural choice, it was about the fact that OS designs are hard - and you need to do the work to solve all the little problems which crop up with your big idea.
FSD is essentially going through the same thing, but the stakes are higher - FSD can kill people as a basic part of its function. We were always in a countdown till we started getting the first self-driving casualties.
This is not of course to suggest that what Tesla is doing right now is okay, but I'd sure be cautious trying to read the winner of the next 20 years into it.