I’ve been reading “fairly soon” for so many years now. People laughed on HN when you said we wouldn’t have it by 2020. I hope technologists are willing to do the hard work to make sure it actually is safer before making assertions that it is based on shoddy as-honest-as-an-advertisement statistics.
My parents will be alive for probably another 20 years. That's the kind of time horizons I'm looking at things, not the current marketing speak. If we get there within a decade, that will seem very quick to me and I'll be very happy with our progress.
And I make the prediction that Tesla's "Autopilot" in its current form of camera-only navigation will not be able to be safer than new drivers and the elderly (below 80) within the next 20 years, maybe ever.
To be it must navigate any situation without any driver intervention:
- parking in tight spaces
- follow the assigned turn lanes in an intersection
- follow the local laws on turn on red
- navigating streets that are less than a meter wider than the vehicle and have vehicles parked alternating between right and left but are still both ways (very common in Europe)
- nighttime driving in heavier rain
- following diversions that are not published, badly signposted, and were set up quickly by the city due to sudden a hole or similar in the street
- follow streets without any or even wrong markings on them
Most importantly it must not drive people into dividers, well-lit emergency equipment, and/or crossing trailers.
The fun thing about this is: we both won't ever be able to prove our theories right because neither enough elderly nor enough new drivers will own a Tesla with "Autopilot". They are just too expensive.
I don’t see anything in this comment thread that was specifically referring to Tesla self driving cars. I think the sentiment is for self-driving cars in general, achieved however.
