I think the issue here is figuring out how to make sure the tax breaks and other stimulus/incentives are "let's put some temporary fuel on this fire until it becomes self-sustaining" vs how it's seemingly gone for most other industries (ag, resources, banking, etc) where it becomes a long-term dependency and every new shakedown is anchored in a combination of emotional arguments and sunk cost fallacy.
Chip technology looks like a critical long term dependency for all nations, and I don't think China will shy away from providing practically infinite incentives for it happening there.
There can be no race to the bottom simply because China has cheaper labor and fewer regulations which mean that they are able to produce components, for profit, at a cost below what it would take for us to even produce those same components, let alone show a profit margin on them.
The more predictable outcome would be once domestic chips are being manufactured in sufficient quantity, foreign chips are either banned because "national security", or large tariffs are imposed on them. In either case you effectively create an uncompetitive oligopoly within the country in a field with tremendous barriers to entry. I'm sure that'd never be abused.
isn't that the whole point of globalization anyways? We wanted super cheap fabs, we got super cheap fabs. The problem is that the cheapest way to get something done may or may not be the most strategic move from a governance standpoint when you don't have a great relationship with the country who is responsible for all of your fabrication.
