"They should be able to walk into the interview and tell me to within $5K precisely what they should be making."
I think this only works for average hires. People who are more competent than average often don't understand that they are; to them, it just seems like they've had the bad luck to work with incompetents so far. If you're actively looking for average people to fill up a roster, that's fine, then, but if you really want the most competent people you can find (as evidenced by your "if you can justify $200K/yr" comment), you're either going to have to pay what they're really worth independently of what they think they're worth, or risk losing them to the first hirer that is willing to do so.
I think this only works for average hires. People who are more competent than average often don't understand that they are; to them, it just seems like they've had the bad luck to work with incompetents so far. If you're actively looking for average people to fill up a roster, that's fine, then, but if you really want the most competent people you can find (as evidenced by your "if you can justify $200K/yr" comment), you're either going to have to pay what they're really worth independently of what they think they're worth, or risk losing them to the first hirer that is willing to do so.