> Wisdom of the crowd I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the o... | Hacker News

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sph 7 months ago | parent | context | favorite | on: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

> Wisdom of the crowd

I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the odds of US bombing Iran and they were vanishingly low. IIRC most bets were aiming for summer 2026. YMMV.

gosub100 7 months ago [–]

There's a prisoners execution paradox here. If PM said there's a 95% chance, then Iran knows that too, and can prepare. Making them a worse target.

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