I agree thst predictions by themselves are noise. However, predictions that are based on analogy are fascinating. Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." We see this all the time in the technology sector alone. For example, back in the 80s companies used to buy IBM servers because the thought was that nobody would be fired for buying the safe product. As a result, IBM stagnated in the very area in which it was most competitive. These days, we see Oracle in the exact same spot. Their salespeople use the exact same "fear, uncertainty and doubt" strategy and therefore it is safe to predict that they will end up just like IBM in many ways, just like Facebook will end up like AOL.
I guess my problem with Facebook predictions is that the majority of them seem to simply be someone writing about their personal experience with Facebook and then extrapolating that out. I honestly think that what blogger X or tech journalist Y thinks about using Facebook is utterly immaterial to the future of Facebook. They've crossed the chasm, it doesn't matter if the technorati think Facebook is "done", they don't need us, and our nerd rage will not affect their future in any way.
