Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

On the flip side, myspace/aol/etc are still in use.

Things that large don't stop on a dime. I do think facebook is hitting a slowing period, the growth days are long behind them. It's only a matter of time until something new sweeps everyone away. Once that happens it will be the new myspace. Where advertisers don't care to market as much. It won't die but it will become less important, and eventually become irrelevant. FBs push notification campaign shows how they are trying to stay relevant.

Back in the 1990s, movies would include an AOL Screen Name (or something similar, room name or something - but AOL specific) in exactly the same way that movies and other advertisements today specify "like us on facebook." At some point that will stop happening as Facebook loses its shine.

You're thinking of AOL keywords.

Arbitrary list? Why not use Google, Apple, Intel?

Not arbitrary... list to support his opinion of Facebook.

It's arbitrary because if we're going to assume that facebook is going away, we can just as easily assume that google, intel, etc will.

> Arbitrary list? Why not use Google, Apple, Intel?

Hardware is much more important than software. Low level software (like operating systems) is much more important than web applications or services.

I just saw a Myspace ad on ESPN this afternoon. That tells me they're not gone...

> The only certainty is change.

Very true, which is why you should trade regularly. Strictly speaking, you can't win unless you play. In the long run, everything dies, so you have to ask yourself: is $FB a good bet for the next year? next 2 years? next five years?

Stockbrokers encourage regular trading, it's how they make their money and their clients lose theirs, churn is another name for it.

You're better off randomly selecting a bunch of investments and sitting on them.

While that's true, it's also not a bad way to get money. You have to first be comfortable with risk, and then play the game.