Expected value is a function of both value and probability. Sure, $20 billion is a lot, but Zuckerberg's success is as likely as winning the state lottery.
Even with Y-Combinator, not every accepted startup raises funding, and dies without a congratulatory TechCrunch post.
> but Zuckerberg's success is as likely as winning the state lottery.
I'd say it's even less likely than that. How many state lottery winners have we seen since Facebook went huge? How many grand slam successes have we seen?
How come investors give money to startup founders but not state lottery ticket buyers? Isn't their entire job to professionally evaluate these expected values?
Being accepted to YC actually means being funded. With YCVC it's ~$100k.
Investors give money to organizations that either they perceive as having a significantly above-average chance of "winning the lottery", or that have basically already "won".
I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's a bunch of people out there offering to loan money to people who have already won the lottery. :-)
Even with Y-Combinator, not every accepted startup raises funding, and dies without a congratulatory TechCrunch post.