It doesn't seem all that different from the market for any other regulated product. The FCC approval process for electronics more or less works, not because it's impossible to get around it, but because most people don't go shopping for stuff that's not FCC-approved and most businesses don't want to risk selling it.
Of course there are always black markets, but their scale depends on how much unmet demand there is that can't be satisfied by regular markets.
The difference is that we will have self-directed autonomous technology running rampant outside confined areas, and you only need 0.1% of it to go rogue to cause serious damage.
Of course there are always black markets, but their scale depends on how much unmet demand there is that can't be satisfied by regular markets.